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Global semiconductor output value is reduced by 9.6%, fearing the biggest decline in 10 years
Gartner, the research and development agency, lowered its global semiconductor production forecast this year. It is estimated that it will fall from 475 billion US dollars last year to 429 billion yuan, down 9.6% year-on-year, and the recession will record the largest in 10 years. This is the third time that Gu Neng has revised its semiconductor output forecast this year.
Senior chief analyst Li Fubang pointed out that in addition to the decline in the price of memory and other types of chips, the demand for major applications such as Sino-US trade war, mobile phones, servers, and personal computers has stagnated. This is the main reason why the global semiconductor market is facing the biggest recession since 2009. factor.
With the continued trade dispute between China and the United States, Li Fubang believes that the United States' restrictions on security based on mainland enterprises have prompted the mainland to accelerate domestic substitution, while some manufacturing industries will have long-term effects on semiconductor supply and demand in order to avoid risk of moving factories out of the mainland. He also called on semiconductor factories to review production and investment plans to protect themselves from market weakness.
In terms of market supply and demand, the long-term supply shortage of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) ended in the second half of 2018. Li Fubang expects that this year, due to the slowdown in server demand and the high industrial inventory, the price of DRAM will drop by 42.1%. It is believed that the oversupply situation will continue until the second quarter of next year.
The storage-type flash memory (NANDFlash) market is oversupply in the first quarter of 2018. Li Fubang said that the mobile phone market has high inventory levels and the demand for solid-state hard disk (SSD) is weak. It is estimated that the supply and demand of NANDFlash market will be expected after the fourth quarter of this year. Near balance.
However, due to the slowdown in the long-term growth of personal computers and mobile phones, the new NANDFlash plant in China will expand its production capacity. Li Fubang believes that this will add uncertainty to the market conditions of the NANDFlash market after 2022.
Senior chief analyst Li Fubang pointed out that in addition to the decline in the price of memory and other types of chips, the demand for major applications such as Sino-US trade war, mobile phones, servers, and personal computers has stagnated. This is the main reason why the global semiconductor market is facing the biggest recession since 2009. factor.
With the continued trade dispute between China and the United States, Li Fubang believes that the United States' restrictions on security based on mainland enterprises have prompted the mainland to accelerate domestic substitution, while some manufacturing industries will have long-term effects on semiconductor supply and demand in order to avoid risk of moving factories out of the mainland. He also called on semiconductor factories to review production and investment plans to protect themselves from market weakness.
In terms of market supply and demand, the long-term supply shortage of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) ended in the second half of 2018. Li Fubang expects that this year, due to the slowdown in server demand and the high industrial inventory, the price of DRAM will drop by 42.1%. It is believed that the oversupply situation will continue until the second quarter of next year.
The storage-type flash memory (NANDFlash) market is oversupply in the first quarter of 2018. Li Fubang said that the mobile phone market has high inventory levels and the demand for solid-state hard disk (SSD) is weak. It is estimated that the supply and demand of NANDFlash market will be expected after the fourth quarter of this year. Near balance.
However, due to the slowdown in the long-term growth of personal computers and mobile phones, the new NANDFlash plant in China will expand its production capacity. Li Fubang believes that this will add uncertainty to the market conditions of the NANDFlash market after 2022.
